In response to climate change, global warming, pollution, and other environmental concerns, governments around the world are increasingly supporting electric vehicle (EV) technology. For example, France has set a goal of banning all combustion engine vehicles in 2040. Additionally, China is also moving towards this goal with its Made in China 2025 initiative. Currently there are still some barriers to EV uptake such as high purchase prices and lack of charging stations in many regions.
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Yet, it’s not difficult to imagine a future where EVs take over their gas-powered counterparts on every level; from private use cars to public transportation systems. The most recent forecast by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) predicts that EV sales will grow from 1% today to 14% in 2030 and 44% in 2050. To put these numbers into perspective, it’s worth noting that at present rate of growth we could achieve 100% penetration of EVs within just 13 years.
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What will be the expected future demand for the electric vehicle industry?
Electric vehicle production is expected to rise from 2.4 million cars in 2017 to 11.4 million in 2025. This increase is a result of new regulatory policies across the globe, increasing battery costs, competition from other energy sources such as natural gas, along with breakthroughs in technology. In addition to this growth, three-quarters of all new car sales will be electric vehicles by 2040. For example, India aims to have an electric vehicle fleet of 40% by 2030. And China has set a goal of having at least one out of every five vehicles sold being electric by 2025. Furthermore, some countries are also phasing out combustion engine automobiles completely: Norway and Germany have both set goals for all new cars sold to be electric starting in 2030. France plans to do the same by 2040. As these predictions unfold, it’s clear that the future of electric vehicles will not only be sustainable but also profitable for manufacturers.
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Who are the major players?
The electric vehicle industry is a relatively new industry. It is still in its infancy. The key players in this industry are Tesla, Ford, General Motors, Nissan, Volkswagen Group, BMW Group, BYD Company Ltd., Honda Motor Company Ltd., PSA Group (PSA Peugeot-Citroen), Mercedes-Benz/Daimler AG and Toyota Motor Corporation. These major companies have been investing heavily into this new emerging industry. With all these investments it seems that these companies have faith that there will be an increase in demand for electric vehicles with time as consumers become more aware of the environment and look to buy greener cars.
What are the government initiatives to fuel the demand of electric vehicle usage?
In order to spur demand, governments have adopted various initiatives to promote electric vehicles such as tax credits, regulatory standards, purchase incentives, and investments in charging infrastructure. For example, California offers a $5,000 rebate to purchasers of new battery-powered cars that emit zero emissions. The U.S., France, India and China offer tax breaks for buying an EV. India wants all public transportation vehicles to be electric by 2030. France is making it illegal to sell any new gasoline or diesel vehicle after 2040. Finally, Norway plans on being a fossil fuel free nation by 2050 with only electric and hydrogen powered cars on the road.
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The Indian government has been proactive in incentivizing electric vehicles with a variety of initiatives. It recently unveiled a plan to spend $2.5 billion on electric vehicle infrastructure including charging stations and battery-swapping stations over the next five years. The Indian government also set aggressive quotas for companies building cars in India, requiring them to make an increasing percentage of low-emission cars each year. And it announced plans to gradually phase out gas-powered trucks and buses from Indian roads by 2035. These initiatives are critical given that transportation is responsible for 27% of all energy consumption in India, and nearly 80% of those emissions come from passenger cars, trucks, buses and two wheelers (or motorcycles).
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What is the total market size of the electric vehicle industry?
In 2016, the total market size of the electric vehicle industry was $23.7 billion. This is projected to grow $51.9 billion in 2025, and $77.3 billion in 2030 (by which point electric vehicles will represent 13% of all cars on U.S. roads). By 2030, there are likely to be at least 45 million EVs on US roads; these numbers have already been exceeded in some European countries like Norway and Sweden. The average range of these vehicles is forecasted to increase from 122 miles per charge today to 400 miles per charge by 2030, which would make it possible for EVs to travel across Europe with just one stop at a charging station every few hundred miles. The price of batteries will also continue to drop, making them more accessible even to low-income consumers. As they become more affordable and accessible, EVs are expected to begin outselling traditional gas-powered vehicles by 2028. Some analysts believe that as early as 2030, nearly 40% of new cars sold will be electric. And as battery power increases and prices go down, long-distance driving ranges should improve beyond anything available today. All this means that EVs offer the potential for a more sustainable future where air pollution is reduced and dependence on foreign oil is eliminated – because our country can finally reduce its dependence on foreign oil without sacrificing consumer choice or lowering our standard of living.
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